Combining Event-Based and Functional Analysis in Municipal Risk Assessment: Capturing Cumulative Strain on Critical Societal Functions

Abstract

Municipal risk assessment is typically structured around event-based analyses. While widely used, such approaches may limit the ability to identify how multiple simultaneous pressures collectively affect critical societal functions. This study examines how municipal risk assessment can be further developed by combining event-based and functional perspectives through an analytical hybrid approach within existing governance practice. Based on participatory action research in a Norwegian municipality, functional load assessment was integrated into an established scenario analysis framework. Rather than introducing new models, the approach extends existing analysis by enabling assessment of aggregated impact on each and across scenarios. The findings indicate a shift towards evaluating functional system performance, making cumulative strain across scenarios more visible. The study provides practice-based insight into how existing analytical frameworks can be extended without methodological reform, with implications for municipal risk governance and more resilience-oriented understandings of risk.