Assessing Hybrid Threats to Critical Infrastructure through Morphological Analysis and Escalation Phases

Abstract

Hybrid activities increasingly threaten critical maritime infrastructures, such as subsea data cables and pipelines. Operating below the threshold of open military conflict, they challenge traditional damage- and intensity-based approaches to threat assessment. Their strategic relevance often lies less in direct physical damage than in political impact, ambiguity, and gradual escalation dynamics. This paper develops an analytical framework combining morphological classification with a phase-based escalation model. The morphological analysis differentiates key dimensions such as strategic and operational intentions, target structures, means of action, and contextual factors including ambiguity and degree of control. Building on this, the phase model enables events to be categorized within a dynamic escalation process, distinguishing between cumulative and impact-driven escalation pathways. This approach provides a structured framework for assessing hybrid threats in the maritime domain and enables a differentiated interpretation of grey zone threat activities and escalation pathways.