Field Driven Heuristics for Routing Decisions in Humanitarian Supply Chains

Abstract

Routing in humanitarian supply chains (HSCs) in sudden onset disaster response must contend with fragile infrastructure, volatile security conditions, and limited information. Although several HSC studies have suggested supporting routing under uncertainty through stochastic or robust optimization, the suggested methodologies typically assume known probability distributions, stable network topology, and continuous information flow. In reality, many of such assumptions often do not hold: road access may be structurally uncertain, regulations can change abruptly, and communication between field teams and coordination centers may be intermittent. Thus, how do field-based decision-makers actually route humanitarian cargo in HSCs under access fragility and communication latency? This work-in-progress research uses a case study design to explore heuristics commonly used by field-based decision makers for routing in HSCs. Drawing on operations in the South Caucasus and Türkiye, we identify latency‑aware heuristics such as pre‑validated alternative corridors, engineering‑first feasibility screening, decentralized trigger-based rerouting, multimodal buffering, and regulatory pre‑clearance strategies. We describe how these heuristics function, their benefits, and limitations, and offer an initial foundation for developing an empirically grounded methodology to support routing decisions in sudden onset disaster response.