Sensitivity Analysis of a Road Clearing and Relief Supplies Distribution Model for Vancouver Island in the Event of a Cascadia Megathrust Earthquake

Abstract

Southwestern British Columbia is the most seismically active region in Canada because of its proximity to the Cascadia Subduction zone.  To improve emergency preparedness for Vancouver Island, models have previously been developed to estimate the potential damage to infrastructure from a major earthquake, to consider community resilience while awaiting relief supplies, and to optimize procedures for repairing damaged roads and routing trucks from marine terminals to needy communities during the 72-hour emergency response phase. However there are large uncertainties in the disaster impacts, and numerous assumptions in the models’ parameters, so this study serves to conduct sensitivity analysis on several of the factors to produce more robust recommendations from the model outcomes including: best depot location for road-clearing teams; most critical roads for supply distribution; most critical ports for supply distribution; and the effect of incorporating a community resilience measure. Effective display of results is an important consideration.