Understanding the influence of Weather on Traffic Incidents in Spain

Abstract

Analyzing the impact of weather conditions on traffic incidents is relevant for assessing the vulnerability of road networks. While previous research has examined specific factors, a holistic framework regarding traffic incident protection remains necessary. This study applies an integrated multi-dimensional approach to evaluate precipitation effects in Gipuzkoa, Spain (2021–2024). Specifically, regression models are employed to quantify the relationship between precipitation and the occurrence, frequency, and severity of traffic incidents. Regression results quantify the observed patterns and indicate that precipitation conditions play a critical role in shaping road safety outcomes. Particularly, wet conditions increase the odds of incident occurrence by 70%, raise the number of incidents by 25%, and elevate the likelihood of severe outcomes by 24%. Crucially, when incidents coincide with registered flood events, the odds of a severe outcome more than double the normal scenario, identifying active disasters as a significant risk amplifier. Furthermore, the study shows that factors such as geography and the season amplify the overall risk chain of road incidents. These findings support the development of weather-responsive traffic management strategies.