Fuzzy-Logic-Driven Scenario Steering for Adaptive Whole-of-Society Tabletop Exercises

Abstract

Conventional tabletop exercises (TTEs) assume linear scenario trajectories, while contemporary crises evolve through nonlinear interactions between governance decisions and societal dynamics such as trust, compliance, and coordination. Iterative refinement between exercises is insufficient for whole-of-society preparedness in complex health crises. This paper proposes an adaptive TTE design that operationalizes societal feedback as structured inputs for in-exercise scenario steering. Developed within the European PREPSHIELD project, the approach combines causal-loop modeling with a fuzzy-rule-based inference mechanism linking participant behavior to dynamic scenario state updates. Findings from an initial Hamburg pilot demonstrate feasibility and reveal critical design challenges, particularly that overly abstract measurement instruments risk obscuring relevant social dynamics. The paper contributes a candidate methodological framework for adaptive whole-of-society exercises, supported by empirically refined rule patterns and a multidimensional evaluation strategy. As a work-in-progress study, the design is undergoing validation. While developed for health crises, the mechanism is designed for domain-specific adaptation.