Scenario planning to enable foresight in crisis management

Abstract

In today’s interconnected society, we are witnessing crises traversing into new domains and effortlessly cross boundaries. Therefore, it is crucial to develop adequate foresight in order to chart a course of action. In this paper, we propose scenario planning as a key technique. Based on an explorative study of 30 interviews with representatives from all Dutch safety regions, we answer the question: in what ways can scenario planning facilitate foresight in crisis information management? Our results indicate that all regions in the Netherlands are investing in training and capacity building for scenario planning, but there is no consensus on the chosen methods and institutionalization. Qualitative approaches to scenario planning are dominant, while opportunities arise for quantitative approaches. We propose real-time and strategic foresight as a promising research agenda, and suggest ways for information systems research to develop data-driven tools that may help chart the impact of future contingencies.